The European Central Bank's eagle voice is loud and clear. Analysis of the short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on December 10

Global market overview

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures all fell, with the Dow futures falling 0.12%, the S&P 500 futures falling 0.12%, and the Nasdaq futures falling 0.22%. Germany's DAX index fell 0.40%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.27%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.27%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.16%.

2. Interpretation of market news

The European Central Bank sounded a loud hawk, German debt was hit hard, and global markets were under pressure simultaneously

⑴ Under the impact of more hawkish remarks from the European Central Bank, the price of the euro zone’s benchmark government bonds (represented by German debt) fell to a new low overnight, with medium-term bonds leading the decline. ⑵ Specifically, after narrowing to 130.8 basis points, the yield difference between 10-year U.S. bonds and German bonds has now rebounded to 132.0 basis points, which is slightly wider than the closing of the European market as German bond prices rebounded slightly from lows. ⑶ Market trading volume is at a moderate level. As of 05:54 Eastern Time, 242,000 lots of 10-year Treasury bond futures were traded. ⑷ Major global stock indexes generally fell slightly. The S&P 500 index fell slightly, the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.2%, and the Nikkei 225 index and China's CSI 300 index also closed slightly lower. ⑸The U.S. dollar index fell slightly to 99.17. Major non-U.S. currencies strengthened slightly against the U.S. dollar. The exchange rates of the euro, pound, and yen all increased. ⑹ The price of gold fell slightly to US$4,193.33 per ounce, while the price of oil rose slightly to US$58.57 per barrel. ⑺The ECB’s tough stance not only hit the bond market, but also triggered interest ratesThe re-evaluation of the outlook is also exerting pressure on global stock markets and foreign exchange markets, and market risk appetite has been suppressed.

The Trump administration plans to reshape the anti-money laundering regulatory system, and the Treasury Department may gain core discretion

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration is planning to carry out major reforms to U.S. anti-money laundering rules, aiming to reconstruct the current regulatory system for identifying illegal financial transactions. The U.S. Treasury Department proposes a more central coordinating and discretionary role in the system, according to a draft that has been circulated to banking regulators across the country. The banking industry has long criticized current anti-money laundering regulations for focusing too much on "technical www.xmyktj.cnpliance" rather than actual risk prevention and control. The reform draft partially responds to industry demands and is expected to give the Financial Crimes Enforcement Bureau (FinCEN) under the Treasury Department a key power: to veto other regulatory agencies’ determination that banks violated the Bank Secrecy Act. If the proposal is ultimately implemented, banks would be able to avoid penalties for such anti-money laundering system problems if the Treasury Department deems them to be "purely technical violations," the latest move by the Trump administration to push for loosening financial regulations. The banking industry generally welcomes the current government's relaxation of regulations in terms of capital requirements, loan restrictions, etc. and its strengthening of constraints on federal supervisory agencies. If this adjustment to the anti-money laundering system is implemented, it will further change the pattern and implementation logic of U.S. financial www.xmyktj.cnpliance supervision.

Ghana’s economy grew brilliantly by 5.5%, driven by agriculture and services, and the central bank cut interest rates to support recovery

⑴ Data from the Ghana Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday that the country’s economy grew by 5.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, mainly driven by improvements in agriculture and services. ⑵ However, this growth rate has slowed down from the revised 7.0% in the same period last year, mainly dragged down by the industrial sector which only grew by 0.8%. ⑶ Fishing and crop production drove the agricultural sector to grow by 8.6%, while the service industry, including finance, insurance, trade and education, grew by 7.6%. ⑷ Non-oil real GDP growth was 6.8%, www.xmyktj.cnpared with 7.8% in the same period last year. The country is gradually emerging from its worst economic crisis in decades. ⑸ Before the release of growth data, Ghana's annual inflation rate in November dropped to 6.3% for the 11th consecutive month, the lowest level since the base adjustment in 2021. ⑹ In response to the continued decline in inflation and to support economic recovery, the Central Bank of Ghana has cut interest rates by a total of 1,000 basis points this year on the grounds that the economic outlook has improved and inflation is expected to fall further. ⑺This shows that Ghana’s economy is entering a stage of relatively stable growth and easing inflationary pressure, and the continued easing of monetary policy provides support for recovery.

The flood of supply is unstoppable, and the five major banks on Wall Street are all bearish. Oil prices may drop to $59 in 2026

⑴ Mainstream Wall Street institutions generally expect that international oil prices are currently experiencing the worst year since the epidemic, and that their downward trend will continue in 2026. ⑵ According to the average forecast of five major investment banks, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, Brent crude oil futures prices may further decline to approximately US$59 per barrel in 2026. ⑶The core basis for this bearish consensus is that the global oil market is expected to face an average supply surplus of about 2.2 million barrels per day in 2026. ⑷The main reason for the oversupply is that the growth of global production is expected to exceed the growth rate of demand. ⑸ Among the five major banks, Goldman Sachs has the most pessimistic view, predicting that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 will be US$56 per barrel; Citigroup is relatively optimistic and maintains its forecast of US$62 per barrel. ⑹ The current price of Brent crude oil is around US$62 per barrel. If the consensus forecast www.xmyktj.cnes true, it means that there is still room for further decline in oil prices in the next year, and supply fundamentals are the main suppressing force.

Italy’s “price limit” move targets an energy bill of 1.6 billion euros, and energy market reform has entered deep water areas

⑴ Italy is planning to pass a draft decree to introduce a new mechanism to limit the wholesale price of natural gas, with the goal of linking domestic prices to European benchmarks. This move is expected to reduce energy bills for consumers by approximately 1.6 billion euros. ⑵ For a long time, Italy's wholesale natural gas prices have continued to be higher than the European benchmark and major Western European countries, mainly due to higher transmission costs, low market liquidity, and renewable energy grid connection bottlenecks. ⑶ According to the draft, the regulator ARERA will launch a liquidity service to select an operator through www.xmyktj.cnpetitive bidding to sell a fixed amount of natural gas every day in the Italian spot market. ⑷The natural gas selling price will be linked to the Amsterdam benchmark price, with an additional fee to manage price volatility. ⑸The winning bidder will receive payment from Italy’s national grid www.xmyktj.cnpany SnamSpA. If its actual sales revenue exceeds the price promised at the time of bidding, the excess must be returned, and an equal amount of natural gas needs to be injected into the pipeline www.xmyktj.cnwork at the designated entry point. ⑹ This mechanism aims to directly lower gas and electricity costs for end users by increasing market liquidity and strengthening price anchoring. It is a key reform measure for Italy to deal with high energy prices and reduce the burden on households and businesses.

Hungary’s 2026 bond issuance plan is released: increase foreign debt, reduce the local currency, and stabilize the proportion of debt in GDP

⑴ The Hungarian government debt agency said on Wednesday that it expects foreign currency debt to account for 29.9% of its total debt stock by the end of 2025, and set a new target range of 30% (plus or minus 3%). ⑵ The country plans to issue a www.xmyktj.cn of 2.903 trillion forints in local currency debt in 2026, a decrease from 3.279 trillion forints in 2025. ⑶At the same time, it plans to issue a www.xmyktj.cn of 1.482 trillion forints in foreign currency bonds in 2026, and plans to obtain 781 billion forints in loans from the EU SAFE fund. The total www.xmyktj.cn foreign currency financing will reach 2.541 trillion forints (approximately US$7.71 billion), higher than this year's level. ⑷Despite the increase in foreign currency financing, thanks to the reduction in local currency debt issuance, total www.xmyktj.cn debt issuance will fall to 5.445 trillion forints in 2026. ⑸In terms of bond auctions, Hungary plans to sell 4.496 trillion forints in government bonds through auction in 2026, up from 4.229 trillion forints in 2025.. ⑹ The country’s public debt is expected to stabilize at 73.5% of GDP this year and next. This series of plans shows that it is www.xmyktj.cnmitted to adjusting the debt structure while controlling the overall debt burden at a stable level.

Lagarde's "eagle" posture is booming: Growth forecasts have been raised repeatedly, and interest rates have been refused to cut due to structural defects

⑴ European Central Bank President Lagarde said on Wednesday that the euro zone economy has shown resilience to trade tensions and growth is approaching its potential level, which may prompt the central bank to raise its growth forecasts again next week (December meeting). ⑵ Lagarde pointed out that despite facing adverse factors such as Trump’s tariff remarks, the strengthening of the euro and intensifying www.xmyktj.cnpetition from China, the actual economic results were much better than expected, showing that the internal economy is quite resilient. ⑶ She specifically mentioned confidence indicators, including manufacturing, and employment data as evidence of economic resilience. ⑷Lagarde reiterated that monetary policy is in a "good position," and investors interpreted this as a clear signal that interest rates do not need to be adjusted. The market also expects the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at its December 18 meeting and in the www.xmyktj.cning months. ⑸ Lagarde hit back at French President Macron’s call for policies to be more supportive of growth, arguing that lowering borrowing costs will not help address structural deficiencies such as internal barriers that hinder the flow of goods and capital. ⑹ Lagarde said that even if interest rates are reduced to extremely low levels or large-scale quantitative easing is implemented, it will not be able to promote the flow of goods and services among member countries. ⑺ She also called this a useful debate and believed it was "interesting" to consider amending the EU treaty that defines "price stability" as the primary responsibility of the central bank.

The market generally believes that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates again this month. Analysis says that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board is scheduled to hold regular monetary policy meetings on the 9th and 10th and announce interest rate decisions. The market generally believes that the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates again. Market participants said that the U.S. job market data has been weak recently, and the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month. The current international financial market trends have reflected the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve announced on October 29 that it would lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. This is the second interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve after it cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17. It is also the fifth interest rate cut since September 2024. The minutes of the October monetary policy meeting released not long ago showed that at the meeting, the Federal Reserve Open Market www.xmyktj.cnmittee passed a resolution of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against. One member of the dissenters voted for a 50 basis point rate cut and another member voted to keep rates unchanged.

The European auto market is facing a turning point: The "life extension" of internal www.xmyktj.cnbustion engines is in sight, and car www.xmyktj.cnpanies are collectively preparing to respond to EU policy adjustments

According to people familiar with the matter, faced with the realistic pressure and market challenges of uneven transformation speed of electric vehicles, major European automakers such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Stellantis are joining forces with suppliers to prepare to extend the life cycle of internal www.xmyktj.cnbustion engine (ICE) models. This move is based on theThis www.xmyktj.cnes amid expectations that the European Union may revise its 2035 ban on new car sales with internal www.xmyktj.cnbustion engines. The current slowdown in demand growth in the European electric vehicle market, coupled with fierce www.xmyktj.cnpetition and the dilemma of overcapacity, has prompted governments and industry representatives from Germany, France and other countries to jointly call for the EU to re-evaluate the original "burn ban" timetable. Parts www.xmyktj.cnpanies have also been www.xmyktj.cnrmed that they need to prepare to support non-electric models to continue to be sold in the European market after 2035. This series of trends marks a major adaptive adjustment in the European automobile industry strategy.

Switzerland’s new president will host the annual meeting in Davos, Trump’s return after four years, attracting attention

The Swiss parliament has elected Economy Minister Guy Palmeiran as federal president in 2026. Although the position is mostly ceremonial, it has attracted attention this year because of the key role played by the current president and Finance Minister Karin Keller-Zutter in the Swiss-US tariff negotiations. She briefly pushed for Trump to suspend his trade offensive, but a subsequent call resulted in Switzerland being slapped with the highest import tariffs among developed countries. As the new president, Palmelan will host the opening ceremony of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos in January next year. It is worth noting that US President Trump confirmed that he will attend the meeting. This will be his first return to Davos since 2020. It is expected that the interaction between the two will receive widespread attention.

The U.S. dollar’s ​​expectations for a “hawkish interest rate cut” have been fully met, and we should be wary of the “sell the fact” callback after the resolution

⑴ The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will carry out a “hawkish interest rate cut” at the December meeting, which has provided support and resilience for the U.S. dollar before the resolution. ⑵Because of this, the market's expectation threshold for "hawks" has been raised, which in turn increases the risk that the outcome of the resolution will "disappoint the hawks" in the market, that is, the degree of hawkishness in the decision-making is less than expected. ⑶The main risk is that this Fed decision may just be a "boots-on-the-ground" event. Once the resolution is passed, the factors that previously supported the dollar's resilience will fade, which may trigger a correction in the dollar after the resolution. ⑷Especially if the content of the resolution lacks surprises, the market's focus will shift. The seasonal weakness of the U.S. dollar at the end of the year, as well as the recent hawkish turns of many central banks around the world (such as the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the New York Fed), are all negative factors for the U.S. dollar. ⑸After the resolution, the market may refocus on these negative US dollar factors that can continue into the new year. History can provide a reference. Before the announcement of the British budget last month, market sentiment was extremely negative and a large number of short positions in the pound were accumulated. However, after the event came to light, short covering only pushed the pound to strengthen significantly. ⑹ Therefore, the trading logic may shift from "anticipation game" to "fact trading". If the Fed fails to provide tougher guidance beyond current pricing, the liquidation of US dollar long positions may promote a correction in the exchange rate.

On the eve of the Federal Reserve’s decision, the market held its breath, and European CDS leaked signals of uneasiness

⑴ Before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision was announced on Wednesday, the cost of credit default swaps (CDS) denominated in euros rose slightly, reflecting the market’s cautious sentiment. ⑵Data shows that iTraxxEuropeCross reflects the credit risk of high-yield bondsThe over index rose 1 basis point to 256 basis points, and the iTraxx Europe Senior Financials index, which reflects the risk of investment-grade financial institutions, also rose 1 basis point to 57 basis points. ⑶ Market prices have priced in the high probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at this meeting, but the real uncertainty for investors lies in policymakers’ guidance on the path of future interest rate cuts. ⑷ Analysts pointed out that the market will be eager to learn from the Federal Reserve's latest economic forecasts how its members view interest rate levels at the end of 2026. ⑸ This shows that www.xmyktj.cnpared with this almost certain interest rate cut, the market is more worried about the uncertainty of the policy outlook. This uncertainty is pushing up the cost of preventing credit risks.

The Bank of Canada is unique. Strong data extinguishes expectations of interest rate cuts, and raising interest rates has become an option.

⑴The Bank of Canada will almost certainly keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday. In October, it already hinted that interest rates are at an appropriate level, and a series of recent strong data have strengthened this stance. ⑵ Despite the pressure brought by Trump's tariff remarks, the Canadian economy still showed resilience, with economic growth of 2.6% in the third quarter, far exceeding the central bank's previous expectations and avoiding an economic recession. ⑶Consumer price index inflation slowed to 2.2% in October, but the central bank’s preferred core inflation measure continues to hover around 3%, at the high end of its 1-3% target range. ⑷The performance of the job market is particularly outstanding. The unemployment rate dropped to a 16-month low of 6.5% in November, and 181,000 new jobs were created between September and November. ⑸ Institutional surveys show that all economists surveyed expect the central bank to remain on hold this time, and most predict it will keep interest rates stable until at least 2027. ⑹ Money market pricing is more aggressive. Although they agree that interest rates will be maintained this time, they tend to bet on the possibility of raising interest rates in the fourth quarter of next year. ⑺The market will pay close attention to Governor McCollum's views on core inflation and how he assesses next year's GDP outlook based on better-than-expected data. ⑻ In sharp contrast to the upcoming interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada's policy path highlights the relative strength of its domestic economy, which may lead to support for the Canadian dollar exchange rate.

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York market opens

EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD rose and is now at 1.1634, an increase of 0.06%. In the New York pre-market, the (EUR/USD) price was trading around the levels of the last session, supported by positive signals on the relative strength indicator and dominated by a short-term bullish correction wave, in a recovery attempt, trading along the trendline, taking advantage of its trading above the EMA50 to strengthen the chances of a price recovery.

GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen and is now at 1.3310, an increase of 0.11%. Before the New York market opened, GBPUSD was last traded in the session.The decline, despite reaching oversold levels, produced negative signals on the relative strength indicator, trying to find higher lows to gain bullish momentum to help it recover and rise again, relying on the support of the EMA50, which strengthens the strength and stability of the short-term bullish trajectory, especially as it trades along the trendline.

Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now trading at 4197.21, a decrease of 0.26%. Before the New York market opened, (gold) prices fell in the last trading day, and the relative strength indicator started to show negative signals. After reaching overbought levels, it tried to get rid of some overbought conditions while exceeding the EMA50, exerting negative pressure and exhausting its positive opportunities in the short term, relying on the support of the secondary bullish trend line in the short term as the final support level, which may help it gain the bullish momentum needed for recovery.

Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 61.226, an increase of 0.96%. Pre-market in New York, (silver) price fell in the last intraday session to collect gains from its previous rise, trying to unload its apparent overbought conditions on the relative strength indicator, especially in the event of negative signals there, to collect positive forces that could help it recover and rise again, the continuation of the dynamic pressure represented by its trading above the EMA50, reinforcing the stability and dominance of the main bullish trajectory on a short-term basis.

Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now trading at 58.380, an increase of 0.24%. In the New York pre-market, (crude oil) prices were trading around the levels seen in the last session, after reaching oversold levels, fluctuating between impending bullish momentum due to the stability of key support at $58.20 and negative signals from the relative strength indicator, along with ongoing negative pressure due to trading below the EMA50, influenced by the short-term negative technical pattern represented by the rising wedge pattern.

4. Institutional view

Citi: The Bank of Canada will "stand still" until 2026, and this meeting may be "very neutral"

⑴ Citi economists expect that the Bank of Canada's interest rates and policy guidance will remain unchanged in the short term, and the next interest rate cut will need to wait until 2026 before there will be a clear catalyst to drive market pricing. ⑵Since the December meeting will not release www.xmyktj.cnrmation containing the latest economicMonetary policy report on economic forecasts, so market focus will be entirely on any subtle changes in the wording of guidance in the policy statement. ⑶ However, Citigroup does not expect President McCallum to provide any new policy guidance at the subsequent press conference, which will be a "very neutral meeting." ⑷ This judgment is consistent with recent strong domestic economic data, especially the resilience of the job market and core inflation, which allows the central bank to maintain a wait-and-see stance in the context of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cut. ⑸ This means that market expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada may be dashed, and the prospect of a spread between the Canadian dollar and U.S. bond yields may support the Canadian dollar.

Morgan Stanley: Strong growth and sticky inflation may limit the Fed's interest rate cuts

Morgan Stanley Investment Management's outlook report pointed out that the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, currently hovering around 4%, may not fully reflect the growth prospects of the U.S. economy. The www.xmyktj.cnpany expects that a series of positive factors will drive the U.S. economy to resume accelerated growth in 2026. The report analyzed that the www.xmyktj.cnbination of stronger economic growth and persistent inflationary stickiness may cause the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates less than the market currently expects in the next 12 to 18 months. This macro background constitutes the main basis for the www.xmyktj.cnpany to reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds. The market has reacted to this, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield once climbing to 4.209%, the highest level since early September.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The European Central Bank's hawk's voice is loud, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on December 10" is carefully www.xmyktj.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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