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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Decision Analysis]: Disagreement within the Federal Reserve intensifies, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on December 11." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures all fell, with the Dow futures falling 0.18%, the S&P 500 futures falling 0.57%, and the Nasdaq futures falling 0.78%. Germany's DAX index rose 0.20%, Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.15%, France's CAC 40 index rose 0.46%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.38%.
⑴ Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled on Wednesday, the most extensive internal disagreements in the past eight years have emerged. The resolution encountered three dissenting votes (two opposed any interest rate cut, and one hoped for a larger interest rate cut), which indicates that further interest rate cuts will face greater resistance in the future. ⑵ Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out at the post-meeting press conference that official employment data may significantly overestimate recent hiring, and may add as many as 60,000 jobs per month. This explains part of the reason the Fed is cautious about the economic outlook. At the same time, the Federal Reserve announced that it will launch US$40 billion in short-term Treasury bond purchases this month to ease money market pressure. ⑶Market strategists interpret that this resolution shows that the Federal Reserve will continue to be easing, but the pace may slow down. A summary of key economic forecasts showed policymakers on average expected just one more rate cut in 2026, which would be more dovish than the two currently priced in by futures markets. ⑷At the same time, the policy paths of major central banks around the world are significantly different: the European Central Bank is considered "extremely unlikely" to raise interest rates in 2026; the Swiss National Bank maintains interest ratesThe interest rate remained unchanged, but it opened the door to further cutting interest rates to negative interest rates; the Central Bank of Turkey cut interest rates again due to an unexpected drop in inflation; the Central Bank of Brazil maintained a high interest rate of 15% and maintained a hawkish stance. ⑸ Market logic shows that internal disagreements and doubts about data at the Federal Reserve have weakened the clarity of its forward-looking policy guidance and increased market uncertainty about the future path. Central banks in various countries take different actions based on different inflation and economic prospects, which may intensify global capital flows and exchange rate fluctuations. ⑹ The focus in the future will be whether subsequent U.S. economic data (especially employment and inflation) will verify Powell's concerns, paving the way for more active easing, or proving that the Fed's caution is correct. The pattern of global policy differentiation will continue to test the independence and www.xmyktj.cnmunication capabilities of major central banks.
⑴ According to OPEC's secondary data summary, in November 2025, the crude oil production of its member countries dropped slightly by 1,000 barrels per day from the previous month to 28.48 million barrels per day. ⑵ Among the major countries that increased production, Saudi Arabia contributed the largest increase, with production increasing by 54,000 barrels per day in November to 10.053 million barrels per day. ⑶ Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates followed closely, with output increasing by 13,000 barrels per day and 16,000 barrels per day respectively to 2.565 million barrels per day and 3.378 million barrels per day. ⑷ Algeria and Libya also achieved slight increases in production, increasing by 10,000 barrels and 4,000 barrels per day respectively. ⑸ In terms of production reduction, Venezuela has the largest reduction, with production decreasing by 27,000 barrels per day in November to 934,000 barrels per day. ⑹ The production of Iraq and Iran also dropped significantly, by 21,000 barrels and 19,000 barrels per day respectively. ⑺In addition, countries such as Nigeria, Gabon, Congo and Guinea have also experienced production cuts to varying degrees. ⑻ Data show that OPEC's internal production adjustments have become divided. Although Saudi Arabia and other countries have increased production, production cuts in many countries have offset the increase, resulting in total production remaining basically stable. This reflects the different domestic production capacity and external constraints faced by each member country under the unified output policy.
⑴ In its monthly report released in December 2025, OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth expectations in 2025 and 2026, at 1.3 million barrels and 1.38 million barrels per day respectively. ⑵ The report raised the supply growth forecast for non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries in 2025 to 960,000 barrels per day, from the previous forecast of 920,000 barrels, with the main growth www.xmyktj.cning from the United States, Canada, Brazil and Argentina. ⑶ OPEC slightly raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.1%, believing that the easing of trade tensions and the stimulus policies of major economies have provided support, and maintained its growth forecast for 2026 at 3.1%. ⑷ Data show that OPEC crude oil production dropped slightly in November 2025, decreasing by 1,000 barrels per day to 28.48 million barrels from the previous month, while the total output of the OPEC+ alliance increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 43.06 million barrels. ⑸According to the established plan, OPEC+ willIn December 2020, production was again increased by 137,000 barrels per day, but subsequent production increases will be suspended in the first quarter of 2026, sending a signal to regulate supply. ⑹ As a leading indicator of market sentiment, Saudi Arabia recently lowered the official selling price of its flagship crude oil to a five-year low, which is seen as a defensive move to deal with www.xmyktj.cnpetitive pressure and www.xmyktj.cnpete for market share. ⑺The current price of Brent crude oil is around US$61/barrel, and WTI crude oil is fluctuating around US$57/barrel. The market focus is on the fundamental contradiction between geopolitical risks and oversupply. ⑻ Despite uncertainties such as geopolitical conflicts, strong supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries (especially in the Americas) continues to strengthen the market's bearish sentiment, causing oil prices to face solid resistance to the upward trend.
On the 10th local time, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the National Defense Authorization Bill for fiscal year 2026, totaling US$901 billion. This bill calls for providing $400 million in military aid to Ukraine each year in the next two years; setting limits on the reduction in the size of U.S. troops stationed in Europe and other regions; and increasing salaries for U.S. active duty military personnel... It is reported that the bill is expected to be passed by the Senate next week, and the White House has expressed support for the bill. The National Defense Authorization Act is the guiding document for the U.S. annual defense spending budget and defense policy. After the bill is passed, Congress will need to pass relevant appropriation bills for the next fiscal year to provide funding for the projects proposed in the National Defense Authorization Act.
On the 10th local time, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the National Defense Authorization Bill for fiscal year 2026, totaling US$901 billion. This bill calls for providing $400 million in military aid to Ukraine each year in the next two years; setting limits on the reduction in the size of U.S. troops stationed in Europe and other regions; and increasing salaries for U.S. active duty military personnel... It is reported that the bill is expected to be passed by the Senate next week, and the White House has expressed support for the bill. The National Defense Authorization Act is the guiding document for the U.S. annual defense spending budget and defense policy. After the bill is passed, Congress will need to pass relevant appropriation bills for the next fiscal year to provide funding for the projects proposed in the National Defense Authorization Act.
⑴ Institutional data shows that in the first 10 months of 2025, major Asian economies, including India, Japan and Vietnam, have made more progress in reducing the carbon intensity of power generation than the United States and Europe, indicating a differentiation between the East and the West in the dynamics of energy transformation. ⑵ The United States is the only major electricity market to see a year-on-year increase in the carbon intensity of power generation, with its average carbon intensity increasing from 381.2 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour in the same period in 2024 to 383.3 grams. The main driver is a roughly 13% surge in coal-fired power generation, which has pushed fossil fuel emissions from the power sector to a three-year high. ⑶In contrast, Europe's average carbon intensity this year fell by about 2% www.xmyktj.cnpared with 2024, and India (down 5%), Japan (down 3%) and Vietnam (down 2%) also recorded declines. ⑷Although Asian economies still rely heavily on coalMuch higher than Europe and the United States (about 70% in India, 48% in Vietnam, and 27% in Japan), but the United States is the only major market where the proportion of coal in the power generation structure has increased sharply this year. U.S. coal's share rises to about 16.1% from 14.6% in 2024, meaning the share of electricity supply from coal-fired power plants increases by 11% year-on-year. ⑸ Market logic shows that the direct reason for the rise in U.S. carbon intensity against the trend is that domestic natural gas prices have increased by about 50% during the year, prompting power www.xmyktj.cnpanies to switch to lower-cost coal-fired power generation. Natural gas prices are expected to remain firm through the winter due to strong demand from LNG exporters, which is likely to keep U.S. coal-fired power generation high in 2026 and carbon intensity trends continue to climb. ⑹ In European and some Asian economies, ongoing economic difficulties have suppressed overall industrial activity, thereby limiting demand from major electricity consumers such as factories and steel mills. If its economic activity improves, it will push up fossil fuel power generation, thereby increasing carbon intensity. Increased industrial demand within the region is likely to lead to a broad recovery in the carbon intensity of Asia's power sector in 2026. ⑺The future focus will be on whether the high natural gas prices in the United States will fall due to production or policy intervention, as well as the pace and strength of Asia's economic recovery. The path of energy transition will continue to evolve amid multiple tradeoffs between costs, energy security and environmental goals.
The South Korean government announced that it will establish a new sovereign wealth fund, aiming to follow the Singapore Temasek model and build an investment platform that www.xmyktj.cnbines national strategic layout and www.xmyktj.cnmercial return capabilities. Koo Yoon-cheol, Minister of Strategy and Finance of South Korea, said that the fund will start with relatively limited initial capital, but the goal is to gradually develop into an important investment institution with global influence through market-oriented and professional operations. He particularly emphasized that the new fund is fundamentally different from the existing Korean investment www.xmyktj.cnpanies - the latter mainly manages part of the foreign exchange reserves, and the investment style is limited by the need for asset preservation; while the new fund will take www.xmyktj.cnmercial returns as its core mission, have higher flexibility in asset allocation, and can more actively get involved in high-risk and high-potential areas. It is reported that the fund is expected to focus on investing in biotechnology, semiconductors and other emerging industries with long-term growth prospects, and support the development of South Korea's core strategic industries in a market-oriented manner. This move is seen as a key step for South Korea to enhance its global financial influence and optimize the national asset allocation structure.
⑴ U.S. Treasury bonds held steady after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday, but yields fluctuated slightly in early trading on Thursday, with yields of each maturity falling slightly from the previous day's highs. The 2-year yield ranges from 3.524% to 3.543%, the 10-year yield ranges from 4.119% to 4.153%, and the 30-year yield ranges from 4.756% to 4.803%. In terms of the yield curve, the spread of 2s/10s was reported at 60.6 basis points, and the spread of 5s/30s was reported at 106.6 basis points. ⑵ SeparationNightly headlines highlighted the www.xmyktj.cnplex environment facing the market: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell questioned that employment data may overestimate as many as 60,000 jobs per month; media said the Fed's internal voting showed the most serious disagreement since 2019, with three senior officials opposing the decision to cut interest rates; the crude oil market is facing the pressure of "super excess" warned by Trafigura. ⑶ Market logic shows that although the Federal Reserve has initiated interest rate cuts, its internal differences and cautious attitude towards data, coupled with external risks (such as the sentiment of technology stocks being hit by Oracle's performance and oversupply of crude oil), have jointly inhibited further carnival in the bond market. The market is reassessing the path for future interest rate cuts. ⑷The market focus during the day will turn to a series of economic data, especially the November PPI, September international trade data and weekly initial jobless claims released at 08:30. These data will verify the Fed's judgment on inflation and the labor market. ⑸ In addition, the U.S. Treasury Department will conduct multiple rounds of bond issuance and repurchase operations on the same day, including the auction of $22 billion in 30-year Treasury bonds to restart issuance, and a cash management repurchase operation of short-term Treasury bonds totaling no more than $12.5 billion. These supply factors may also have an impact on market liquidity and short-term prices. ⑹The focus in the future will be whether economic data will support the Fed's "cautious easing" stance, and whether internal differences will be transformed into clearer policy www.xmyktj.cnmunication. Any evidence that the economy or inflation is more resilient than expected could quickly reverse the downward trend in yields.
US media reported that Ukraine has submitted a revised peace proposal to the United States. According to ABC News, citing a Ukrainian official close to the peace talks, the revised proposal is still based on the original "20-point" framework, but some contents have been "slightly rethought", especially in terms of territorial arrangements and control of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. New ideas have been put forward. The official emphasized that the Ukrainian and U.S. negotiating teams will hold online consultations on Thursday, and the main topic will focus on "security guarantees" rather than the revision of specific provisions of the peace plan. The current relevant negotiation documents are mainly divided into three parts: the basic 20-point peace plan, the security document, and the economic and reconstruction document. Uzbekistan said that economic issues had been discussed the day before, and the core of this round of consultations will focus on security.
⑴Swiss 10-year government bond yields were little changed at 0.28%, remaining near their highest level since October 8 as investors digested the Swiss National Bank's latest policy decision. ⑵ The central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 0% as expected, after suspending its September meeting after cutting interest rates six times in a row. ⑶The Swiss National Bank said that although recent inflation has been slightly lower than expected, its primary focus is still the medium-term outlook that has remained basically unchanged. Inflation is expected to pick up slightly in the www.xmyktj.cning quarters. ⑷The economic outlook has also improved slightly, especially after the Swiss government reached an improved trade agreement with the United States. ⑸Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin SchlegelIt reiterated that the threshold for implementing negative interest rates is high, but the central bank is still prepared to use this tool if necessary. ⑹ In addition, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as widely expected by the market and signaled that it may keep interest rates unchanged in the www.xmyktj.cning months.
⑴ As of December 11, the yields on government bonds of the world’s major economies have shown significant differentiation. The core driver is the difference in economic growth, inflation prospects and central bank policy paths of various countries. ⑵ In terms of ten-year Treasury bonds, the U.S. yield (4.143%) is still at a global high, significantly higher than Germany (2.852%) by 129.1 basis points, but lower than the United Kingdom (4.491%) and Australia (4.730%). Japan (1.931%) has the lowest level among the world's major economies. ⑶ There are obvious stratifications within the Eurozone: the core countries Germany (2.852%) and the www.xmyktj.cnherlands (2.987%) have low yields, while countries such as France (3.573%), Italy (3.543%), and Spain (3.306%) have significant risk premiums, and the interest rate difference with Germany is between 45 and 72 basis points. ⑷The pattern of two-year Treasury bond yields further highlights the differentiation of monetary policies: the interest rate difference between the United States (3.545%) and Germany (2.174%) is as high as 137.1 basis points, reflecting the market’s different expectations for the short-term interest rate paths of the two. Japan (1.053%) remains the lowest. ⑸ Market logic shows that the huge positive interest rate differential in the United States relative to Europe and Japan continues to provide fundamental support for the U.S. dollar and drive carry trades. The internal differentiation in the Eurozone highlights the different pricing of fiscal and fundamental risks across countries under a unified monetary policy. ⑹ The focus in the future will be whether the policy pace of major central banks (especially the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank) will converge. If the U.S. cuts interest rates faster than expected, or if an unexpected rise in European inflation forces the European Central Bank to turn hawkish, the current broad interest rate spread pattern may face revaluation, triggering cross-border capital flows and exchange rate fluctuations.
⑴ The Turkish Central Bank said that consumer inflation in November was lower than expected due to an unexpected downward trend in food prices, and the underlying trend of inflation in October and November declined slightly. ⑵The central bank emphasized that the determination of policy interest rates will take into account realized and expected inflation and its potential trends. The pace of rate hikes will be "carefully assessed" at each meeting based on the outlook for inflation. ⑶Although inflationary pressure has eased, the central bank has made it clear that if the inflation outlook deviates significantly from the medium-term target, the policy stance will be tightened, which leaves it with policy space to raise interest rates again in the future. ⑷On the other hand, the central bank pointed out that GDP growth in the third quarter was higher than expected, showing that the economy is still resilient. The coexistence of falling inflation and rising economic growth has increased the www.xmyktj.cnplexity of policy decisions. ⑸ Market logic shows that the unexpected fall in inflation may provide the central bank with breathing space to pause its aggressive interest rate hike cycle, but its clear statement of tightening tendencies is designed to restrain the market from premature policy changes.to maintain its anti-inflation credibility. ⑹The focus in the future will be whether the downward trend in food prices can be sustained and transmitted to broader core inflation, and whether strong economic growth will push up price pressures again in the future. The central bank's "meeting review" model means that it will be highly dependent on data, and policy uncertainty remains high.
⑴ In the post-epidemic era, Spain is the economic star of the EU, contributing 22% of the EU’s economic growth and 27% of its employment growth since the end of 2019. However, this prosperity relies heavily on large-scale immigration, and this policy is triggering a strong political backlash. ⑵The right-wing parties currently have a www.xmyktj.cnbined support rate of over 50% in the polls, and the support rate of the far-right party Svoboda has increased significantly. Opinion polls show that 59.3% of respondents believe that center-left Prime Minister Sanchez should call an early election. ⑶ Voter dissatisfaction stems from multiple factors: corruption investigations into the prime minister’s inner circle, lack of improvement in personal financial conditions (real wages have fallen by 1% since 2019 and are still 7% below the peak in 2010), and concerns about immigration. ⑷ GDP growth after the epidemic was largely driven by www.xmyktj.cn tourism revenue (annual growth of 14%, www.xmyktj.cnpared with 2% before the epidemic), but this also attracted nearly 3 million foreigners. After adjusting for population growth, Spain's GDP growth was only half of its apparent growth rate. ⑸ There are structural problems in the economic model: Economic upswings (such as the late 1990s and mid-2000s) relied on the introduction of cheap labor into cyclical low-skill industries such as tourism and construction, which led to weak productivity growth, rising rents, and stagnant household purchasing power. ⑹ The Sanchez government has achieved some tangible results: demand brought by new immigrants has pushed the unemployment rate to close to 10% for the first time since 2008; the proportion of temporary contract workers has dropped from 25%, which has hovered for a decade, to 16%; and inflation has been controlled by expanding legalization pathways for immigrants, reforming the labor market, raising the minimum wage, and cleverly setting a ceiling on natural gas prices. ⑺ Spain has also laid some solid foundations: its early promotion of renewable energy has enabled it to obtain the lowest wholesale electricity prices among major European countries; intellectual property investment is 59% higher than before the epidemic, indicating that www.xmyktj.cnpanies are taking advantage of the EU's 37 billion euros of recovery funds; recent hourly output has accelerated in tandem with GDP. ⑻ However, part of the increase may be an illusion caused by unreliable data (later revised). Currently, tourism is slowing, inflation is rising and EU funding is running out. Any lasting improvement may not be seen until the next election. ⑼The dramatic rise of the anti-immigration party "League of Catalonia" in Catalonia has scared away a key ally of Sanchez. At a time when falling living standards are pushing voters toward far-right parties that may tighten immigration policies, Spain's growth model is not firmly established.
EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD rose and is now at 1.1718, an increase of 0.19%. NewIn the pre-market, the price (EUR/USD) is rising above its last intraday levels, supported by its trading above the EMA50, reinforcing the stability and dominance of the short-term bullish trend, especially as it is trading along the support trendline supporting this trajectory. On the other hand, we noticed that after reaching oversold levels, a negative overlapping signal appeared on the relative strength indicator, reducing the final gains.
GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen and is now at 1.3392, an increase of 0.07%. Before the New York market opened, GBPUSD surged sharply in the last trade of the session, breaking through the key resistance of 1.3350, which represents the expected target of our previous analysis. Its continued trading above the EMA50 strengthens the dominance and stability of the short-term bullish correction trend. It trades parallel to the support trend line. On the other hand, we noticed that after reaching overbought levels, a negative overlapping signal appeared on the relative strength indicator, which may reduce the upcoming gains.
Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now trading at 4211.25, a decrease of 0.42%. Pre-market in New York, (gold) prices settled in the red in the last intraday trade as stubborn resistance settled at $4,245, trying to gain bullish momentum that might help break through the resistance, relying on support from the EMA50, which helped stem these losses, with the primary bullish trend dominating on a short-term basis, with trades taking place along the secondary trend lines on a short-term basis.
Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 62.211, an increase of 0.67%. Pre-market in New York, (silver) prices rose in the last trading session to confirm a break above the key resistance of $61.50, supported by its continued trading above the EMA50, dominated by the short-term primary bullish trend, its trading along the supportive secondary trendline of this trajectory, in addition to the emergence of positive signals on the relative strength indicator.
Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, currently trading at 57.830, a decrease of 1.06%. Before the New York market opened, (crude oil) prices deepened on the last trading day and broke through the support level of $57.65, which is the expected target of our analysis this morning, affected by the negative signal that appeared on the relative strength indicator, after reaching overbought levels, it continued to rise.The continuation of negative and dynamic pressure represented by exchanges below the EMA50 reinforces the scenario of extended losses in the near term.
Yuichi Chiguchi, chief investment strategist for Japan at BlackRock, said that if the Bank of Japan "lags behind the situation" in curbing inflation, the Japanese market may be impacted next year. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% next week, which is still well below inflation of around 3%. If price growth accelerates in the second half of 2026, the Bank of Japan may be forced into a faster tightening cycle, Chiguchi said. "They're going to have to struggle to catch up with inflation," Chiguchi said of Bank of Japan policymakers. "This behind-the-curve situation is the one the market hates the most." Still, the world's largest asset manager still thinks Japan's Nikkei stock index will continue to be bullish next year after hitting a record high in 2025. Chiguchi said the craze for artificial intelligence has been a major driver of global stock markets and that Japanese suppliers are expected to further benefit from large-scale investments in the industry. In addition, Japan's financial sector is expected to become another pillar of growth, even taking into account possible paper losses from its holdings of Japanese government bonds. Japanese government bonds have fallen sharply recently, with the 10-year bond yield hitting an 18-year high of 1.97%, partly due to fiscal concerns surrounding Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae's stimulus plan. Chiguchi said it's possible yields could rise to 2% or 3%, but that would not be a headwind to economic growth. He said: "The impact on the real economy will not be too negative, and the reflationary environment will generally be conducive to corporate activities."
Barclays said it expects the booming development of robot taxis and ride-hailing services in the United States to increase the world's largest alcohol market by about $42 billion in the next decade, and European spirits manufacturers will benefit from it. Barclays upgraded Pernod Ricard, maker of Jameson Irish whiskey, Absolut vodka and Malibu rum, to overweight from equal weight and raised price targets on peers Anheuser-Busch InBev, www.xmyktj.cnparison and Diageo by 7% to 9%. The brokerage said there is an established relationship between ride-hailing services and alcohol consumption that is little known in the market. The brokerage cited a 2021 Journal of Health Economics study that showed UberX ride-hailing services led to a 5.4% increase in total alcoholic beverage consumption. The www.xmyktj.cnpany says robot rentals in the U.S.The car market will greatly accelerate the popularity of ride-hailing services in the United States, but other countries will follow suit. It believes that Pernod Ricard's share price has room for a 39% increase, saying that the share price is undervalued after several years of poor performance, a more optimistic market outlook in India, and bleak market expectations in the United States.
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